you know, i'm not sure i would be so good at doing stand ups on cnbc but for a few people it could work. >> it could go to our editorial meeting every day and have no problem with that. for those for whom the marginal utility of the dollar is zero i guess that is a good gift, john. great stuff. as always. john fortt joining us from silicon valley. one quick look at apple here. just keep an eye on it as we get closer and closer to the 505 level which of course was the november low. over at ubs milanovich will be on halftime talking about how his sources don't expect the 5 to be quite as strong as the 4 s in china. let's get to the fast money halftime back at hq. and, thanks very much. welcome to the halftime report. four hours to go until the close. here is where we stand on this friday on wall street, read arrows across the board the dow down 17. s&p, nasdaq negative as well. here is what we're following on

halftime. face lift, facebook shares up 40% in the past two months and one of goldman's newest partners tells you where it is going next. debate it. walmart shares down 4% this week. taking a bit of luster out of what's been a good year for the stock. now two traders square off on whether the retailer is ready for another run. first our top story, apple's freefall. shares sinking to their lowest level in nine months today after ubs cut its estimates and price target. the man who slashed the stock in just a moment. but first our traders for the hour are josh brown, pete najarian, simon baker and j.j. pete, apple not far from the november low of 505. >> right. it's catching up very, very rapidly right now. it's been something where i know we've been talking about this stock a lot and i know a lot of people are just concerned about the fact that maybe it's over talked but it is apple. it was the highest valued stock and continues to be. the sell off is extreme. i am in the camp i think folks are selling for tax reasons. i know there are a lot of

different opinions. slowness of maybe the iphone 5 sales and the rest of it we've heard time and time again. i still don't buy into that whole thing. i think this is tax selling. i'm waiting. i think there are opportunities. i think you can continue to wait. i don't think you have to pounce on apple just yet. i think it gets below 500. >> when does the selling stop? >> that is what everybody wants to know. when does the selling stop? >> i don't know that i have the answer but i'll tell you the way i would be thinking about this. i agree with pete that this has been tax loss selgs but now there is a rink l because you have a couple bulls in the stock pulling in their horns, big firms, jefferies and ubs and the things they're saying are material. they're not making downgrades based on valuation but based on the fact that the growth rate may be materially slow here. >> they're making downgrades for fundamental reasons. >> that is correct. >> which you have not heard very many negative things about. >> oh, no. >> over the past couple years. >> that is right. i think that should force you to pay attention now. we're in the stock. it is not a top ten position. it is not a huge waiting but by

definition everyone who is in the market is in apple. i mean, this is having a huge impact. i tell you, the market should be a lot higher today. we had great pmis from around the world. europe is the best in nine months. >> shanghais. >> yeah. u.s. manufacturing data the best since april. >> we should really be higher and we're not. the reason for that is that you've got apple down, all of the component plays that go alongside that like qualcomm and sky works and arm holdings so that is really what is holding it back today and i think we now have to pay attention to the fundamental slowing as well. >> you know, going on what pete said a little bit here, i think one of the things we're seeing, also, besides the tech selling and i agree on that is there is also still a little bit of hangover. there was a big disappointment apple did not pay a special difficult denld. they spent over a hundred billion dollars in cash. i think people really expected they would do something with it in terms of the tax selling this year. beyond that i think the thing to look at for today's trading is the 505 level, a big level in terms of what the technical

traders are looking at. we saw it down to about 507 so far today. i just think we may go down as pete said to hold back a little bit. i do believe though that that is a level that if you are interested in buying it maybe you sell those or that is a level you want to think about because it is the one so many technical traders are looking at. >> at what point does the tax selling story morph into something more specific that is affecting this stock? >> january 1 would be the date. in all seriousness, you were talking about some momentum on the upside. we got steve coming in, decreasing his price. analysts aren't hanging out at a thousand, 900 dollars. i think you see a lot more companies downgrading themselves based on price. there could be a lot more down side momentum than upside. >> the top rated i.t. analyst on the street joins us now live. steve welcome back to halftime. >> thanks for having me. >> your note is certainly the talk of the street today. and a lot of people are focusing on it for the reason why apple is almost back at those november lows. why have you taken down the

numbers? why have you cut the price target? >> well, we do cut our price target from 780 to 700 and we've taken our earnings estimates down. and the reason is that my colleagues in asia are getting a sense that the production for the iphone in particular is coming down again. i think the street has understood that production would probably be down about 20% in the march versus the december quarter. that is not terribly atypical but we are now sensing it may be down as much as 40%. we're not quite sure why that is the case but it does bring up questions about the demand. we took another look at our model and said, you know, our numbers might be right but they're kind of toward the best case. so we took 5 million per quarter out of our iphones and 2 million out of our ipads and we're looking for $47 in fiscal 13. we think the street may have to bring numbers down a bit. >> how wobbly is your buy rating at this point? >> for 6 to 12 months we still very much think the stock will be higher. i was talking with you guys about a week ago about how we don't expect much pe expansion which means you need earnings growth. having less earnings growth in

our model does bring down the target price. but we still think there is nothing really fundamentally wrong. even on these new numbers you're shipping over 40 million iphones per quarter and we think the stock is not discounting much in the way of future innovation. i would bet there is going to be innovation over the next one to two years from apple. >> if hopes are high for what is taking place in china today here is what i read from one person today calling it the least eventful launch of an apple device in china. that accurate? what would that mean for your projections? >> well i know that there aren't the huge lines outside stores. they took reservations this time which probably largely explains that. some of my sources do suggest that the 5 will do well but probably not do a lot better than the 4s. i think the street is waiting for china mobile, the big wireless provider there to endorse the iphone which we expect late next year. so you still have a few more quarters to get through before that happens. from a stock perspective the other thing i mentioned besides the tax sale you've talked about is a shift in the base from

growth to value investors. i think growth investors have been exiting to protect profits. on the other hand value investors are looking at it but slower to get in. there is a bit of a change in the share holder base which is hurting the stock right now. >> steve, first of all, citigroup decides it takes three of you to follow the stock so i know you are working really hard. the question i want to ask you is regarding tim cook. there's been a number of high profile executive departures recently. a couple missteps. do you think tim is ready to reinvigorate the company going forward? >> i think he is. we all know steve jobs is irreplaceable but apple's biggest advantage right now may be in its supply chain. they are spending more than intel on capital spending every year. some of that is for data centers but most it is buying equipment for their supply chain partners. so other than samsung they're going to be very difficult to compete with aside from the design side where i think with johnny iv they're still going to be in pretty good shape. i'm still comfortable with tim

cook. there is the question what do they do with the cash? at this level they have to start thinking about a more aggressive share repurchase or raising dividends. >> how do you change market sentiment, steve? the fundamentals are being debated at this table. there's been technicals debated at this table. tax selling debated at this table. all of the reasons that could be leading to the stock. maybe it's just simply nothing more than sentiments changed on what was america's favorite stock and now it's not. >> yeah. that is true. i think there is a match ration here. you just can't expect that 50% up every year in apple stock. i certainly hope changing the calendar will make a difference. obviously tax selling won't be an issue in january. people will be a blank slate again, clean sheet of paper in terms of their performance for the year. and then i think of course the apple earnings announcement in late january is going to be very critical in terms of guidance and if that comes together i think we can see the stock act better. >> steve, we'll talk to you soon. thanks so much. >> thank you. >> enjoy the weekend. guys? what do you make of what you heard? >> i don't know how the stock

sort of reverses itself for any meaningful period. it doesn't seem to be able to get any traction now. >> any traction at all. i think he agreed with us as well about the tax selling but i think the one thing that really stuck out to me listening to steve was if the iphone 5 actually doesn't have a home with china mobile until late 2013 do you know who already has a home there? nokia. the lumia 920 and the 620 the less expensive version. there are reasons now that make more sense to me why nokia, why research in motion are out performing by a huge margin right now with apple. maybe they actually do have a chance. maybe research in motion is actually holding on to some of those customers and maybe getting some of those customers back that maybe have gone over to the iphone, not as happy with it, coming back to the blackberry so or whatever the product cycles are that are out there right now. for a lot of different reasons now it is making me really start to rethink nokia could have a lot more upside. >> i'll ask you a question that could be one of the most difficult questions for a trader to figure out right now. what do you do with qualcomm?

guys on this set, every single time we talk about qualcomm. >> yeah. >> they love qualcomm. >> 63 last week. >> what do you do with it? collateral damage -- >> at what point do you look at the apple story and say i got to get out of qualcomm? >> people are not buying phones and the thing about qualcomm and the reason we've been buying that rather than apple all year long is very simple. regardless of who wins, this is very high likelihood, 9 of 10 chance qualcomm's chip set is in the product where we're talking about phones or are we talking about tablets? so you know for us to try to guess is nokia the best phone, this one now this quarter, are they going to say that's hot? it is much easier to just buy the guts and the guts are qzom. we'll look at the collateral damage today and decide if we want to own more of qualcomm but we think the name works regardless of whether or not apple is winning or losing in china this week or this month. >> pete? >> qualcomm. >> i like the name. for all of the reasons you just said it is the guts of so many in the whole smart phone world or whatever but i tend to not want to be under that name.

i've been in the other names. that is a mature name right now. you're not getting the bang for your buck. >> $100 billion stock. we're not expecting a 50% upside move in qualcomm. >> but every time i throw out, when you talk about the supply chain for apple, i mean, whether it's weiss or whoever else is the first to mention i love qualcomm. >> right. >> you're not -- >> samsung, too. the base band chip set, that allows this to talk to the world. that is not going to change whether it's apple or any other company. with qualcomm you get the intel of the mobile computing era. intel just crossed below a hundred million dollar mark. qualcomm passed it on the way up. i think that damage you're seeing in that stock today is way over done given the fact that they benefit from apple losing competitive position, or gaining. they're in every device. >> that stock, many of the components of any of the apple

products are getting ripped today. qualcomm has come off its worst levels but still down 4%. one big box retailer is making a big move today. brian sullivan is at the market flash desk with those details. what's up? >> well, it's best buy and it is making the move opposite to what it made yesterday and earlier in the week. here's the news. look at the stock down almost 15%. ouch. it is now reported, remember we talked about how richard shoals the founder may be coming in with a bid to buy the company and take it between $5 billion and $6 billion? now it is reported best buy has amended his time to make an offer by another month. or two months actually. he can make it between february 1st and february 28th and i guess that is being perceived as being bad because there's concern about whether or not he is going to be able to raise the money so it is seen that he needs more time to raise the funds to put together a group to buy. that's what we're hearing about why the stock is down. if he had the money right now, wouldn't he just go out and make the bid?

so i guess some concern about whether or not richard shulze will be able to come in, sweep best buy off its feet, and take private the company that he founded. this is my cnbc stock strap pick by the way too. i'm getting crushed. might win one with rim. can you believe that? >> comeback story of the year or what? >> it stinks because i said i'd streak headquarters if he won. >> for all of our sake i hope it doesn't happen. >> i'll let you out of that. >> sell! >> please. no worries. >> thanks, sully. simon, do you buy best buy here on this sizable pull back of 15% today? because you figure shulze is going to come in isn't he? even though the deadline is extended if you think he'll come in -- >> the retail christmas numbers are going to tell the story right? he is a card player. he wants to see what the odds are and take a look. the fundamentals of the stock are horrible. if he has taken more time and he

is not that confident it doesn't give me good warm feeling. >> well, still to come after a rough start this year facebook shares climbing 40% over the past two months. where one leading analyst believes the stock is heading in 2013. and walmart price check. the world's biggest retailer seeing its stock struggle. why one trader likes it and another doesn't. it's a halftime debate. later 'tis the season for consumers to shine. are they strengthening the economy? we head to one of the nation's malls for answers. those stories and more coming up on halftime.

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very bearish on facebook when they came public. they had only one engine of growth really and that was advertising on desk top pcs. what was really interesting to us is they had a mobile strategy. they have other initiatives for growth for next year that i think are also pretty

interesting. and that's really the reason for the about face is it's gone from one horse pulling the train to now you've got, you know, pulling the wagon i should say to multiple revenue drivers for next year. >> well that was facebook share holder dan niles detailing the catalyst for an about face on facebook shares. the stock under a bit of pressure today is another lockup expires buchlt t it is up over over the next couple months. where is it heading next? heather, welcome to halftime. good to see you. >> thank you very much. >> has this stock now firmly turned the corner for good? >> well, look. i don't think it is going to be just up and to the right forever. i think you'll have bumpy periods but i do think sentiment is changed tremendously and the mobile strategy is starting to show signs of taking off. >> the street seems to have changed its psychology about this. do you feel that? >> absolutely. in almost all the meetings i have i sense that. >> you rate the stock a buy though you pulled your price target in by a couple bucks.

why? >> we pulled our price target down, did that for the entire coverage group given the volatility and the market of late and concerns over fiscal cliff and macro so it was more of those variables than anything directly related to the fundamentals. what do you want to see next? >> i think it is just a continuation of what we have been seeing. so i think mobile and i would just collectively talk about sponsored stories in general, a much bigger piece of the business in 2013 obviously than they are in 2012. i think the up side is going to surprise people and also after people being really negative and think ad revenue growth from facebook was going to continue to decelerate forever i actually think you get acceleration in advertising revenue in 2013 and a lot of those new initiatives i heard dan mentioning in that book you showed before i came on. i completely agree. >> one of the things we've

talked about so far is the tax selling at the end of the year with apple. with that from what i hear facebook has been one of the main beneficiaries because as they redeploy the money one thing they're doing is buying facebook looking for a $35 level or so over the next year. are you seeing the same thing with the upside pressure on the stock because of the tax benefit? >> i think that is right. the other thing is if you look at google, microsoft, other names that we cover, the transition to mobile, they have actually generated lower revenue per unit whether microsoft and a phone or google and a mobile app. the price points are lower. in the case of facebook all we have are sponsored stories and it actually can be 30 to 40 times the pricing that you get on the right-hand rail desk top type ad.

i'm curious because i think your central point is right that sentiment has shifted. this is a $60 billion market cap. in the next five to ten years it almost can never grow into that market cap and be what some people would consider reasonably valued. so sentiment is always going to be important with facebook wouldn't you agree? >> completely agree, yes. >> let me switch your attention to google. because we've watched that stock rise as apple has fallen. you're in neutral on it with a 680 price target. has the move in google, the stability behind the stock, the recent kick up in the shares, has it surprised you? >> no. look. google is a great business. you have the economics behind desk top search or windows, they're really hard to replicate. it goes back to what i was saying before. if you look out over the next few years the ability for them to grow operating margins we

think is going to be a challenge. we think they'll be constrained because of the fact that they monetize less in a mobile environment than they do in a desk top environment. by the way, don't forget if a search is happening on ios, right, they actually have to pay a tack or a distribution fee to apple. when that is happening in the upper right-hand corner. that is not something that they had to do in a desk top environment. >> heather, good to talk to you. thanks so much. >> take care. >> simon baker? what do you think about facebook here? and then tell me about google which is absolutely outshining apple over the last several months. >> she is right on face boochblgt i am a buyer but i don't agree with google at all. one of the arguments she makes is how week the tablet is and in fact it had better reviews than the ipod selling over a million a month. i think google is very, very strong. >> facebook? >> i would say on facebook, i agree with everything she said.

you know, a momentum stock absolutely. although the whenever you have it that great -- it is now a fairly priced stock for the potential it has and that is the biggest point. >> the street wanted to hate it when it came out. >> you get to a situation where there are no sellers left and the street wanted to believe and it coincided with the better than expected earnings report. be honest. it is never going to move into this multiple valuation but so long as the street is on the stock side and the momentum is there why would you want to bet against it? you could sit on the sidelines but if you're going to play you should play in the direction it is moving. >> let's do the biggest pops and drops now in midday trading. first solar is getting a pop today jj about 2%? >> yeah. first solar you may not know was the most volatile stock in the s&p 500 this year at 72.5% annualized return. they came out with a new film

today. the r&d is working very well. >> give me the scoop on veri phone because it is dropping big. >> all about guide annals. i agree with citigroup analysts who came out pounding the table that this is an opportunity. i think it is as well. down almost 12% the stock beaten for all the wrong reasons. i think this name with the organic growth in north america is a great opportunity to get in. >> simon the letter x is getting a pop today. what is going on? >> you know, the stock is still down 11% for the year but popped back 7%. it's all about what is going on with china with the strong numbers that came out last night looking strong. i am a believer. >> schlumberger is slumming it today. the stock is down. >> this is just not a good sector. energy is the weakest sector in the s&p this year. i really don't see any reason to jump into this. they're talking about weaker than expected north american drilling which doesn't square with anything we have heard of drilling activity. i think you'd have to look closely into this company and decide if you really want that risk. >> a pop for striking out. when it comes to bowling strikes, this dude abides.

chad mclean who has plenty of spare time on his hands rolled his way to a new world record by following nine strikes in a single minute at a florida bowling alley to accomplish the fast lane feat he had to hit about one strike every seven seconds. you guys need to wear your fast money bowling shirts. coming up on halftime we head to the pits to find out if commodity traders are buying the china recovery story. plus walmart shares down big this week. but does the pullback mean it's time to buy? we'll debate that. for teen spenders to upscale consumers we're taking stock of holiday spending activity one of the nation's largest shopping mall chains. back after this. let's give thanks -

for an idea. a grand idea called america. the idea that if you work hard, if you have a dream, if you work with your neighbors... you can do most anything. this led to other ideas like liberty and rock 'n' roll. to free markets, free enterprise, and free refills. it put a man on the moon and a phone in your pocket. our country's gone through a lot over the centuries and a half. but this idea isn't fragile.

when times get tough, it rallies us as one. every day, more people believe in the american idea and when they do, the dream comes true. we're grateful to be a part of it. it is time now for our top three trades and today focusing on some of the week's biggest winners and losers. shares of jcp, j.c. penney having their best week in over ten months. up more than 17%. the best performing stock in the s&p this week. up another 3% today. jp, what in the world is going

on? >> don't get too excited. it is still off 63% from the february highs and it has rallied right into its declining 50-day moving average. this will be a very important level to decide whether or not this rally has legs to continue. there are positive analyst comments this morning i guess helping the case. just keep in mind a third of this is short so it is going to be a wild stock in one direction or the other no matter what. >> another name having a big week. cliffs natural resources up about 13%. it is though down 45% so far this year, pete, so i guess you take into context what josh brown just said. don't get too excited or what? >> i think in this name you do want to be excited because of what we heard from china. when you start to see the expansion in china and you start to see some of the global growth story maybe start to get react investigated i think a lot of these names, if you look across the sectors right now, look in the coal space, iron ore space, steel, you're seeing green numbers to the upside. i think there is a lot more left with cliffs. the yield also scott if you're looking for yields is massive. even if they cut it in half

you're still getting over a 3% yield. a lot of reasons for liking the stob. >> finally family dollar falling about 7% following a downgrade to neutral from overweight at jp morgan. the firm says competitive pressures heating up in that space. stocks getting a pop today. one-quarter of 1%. >> i mean just to your point it was really downgraded by jp morgan to neutral. it has weak traffic. softness going into this earnings season. doesn't look so good. the big news is that josh brown has stopped buying stuff there. obviously going to take a big hit. >> i'm all dollar general from here on out. >> some good news out of china. key measure of manufacturing growth rose to a 14-month high. it is a bullish sign for global growth so what does it mean for the oil market. let's go to mandy drury at the futures now with the traders. >> hey, scotty. absolutely. it is a positive sign for the global growth picture right? but the oil market is really hardly moving on the news. so the question is could we be setting up for a rally down the

road? let's talk futures now. we'll go to jim at the cme in chicago and the nymex in new york. jim, i would like to start with you. are you surprised by the move in crude? do you think maybe the oil market is doubting the china recovery here? >> i think it is one of two things. first to answer your question, yes i'm surprised. i think that manufacturing number should have caused crude to spike more. the fact that it hasn't means one of two things. one they either doubt the information or they doubt the story out of china or, two, there are other factors keeping crude lower. over the last few weeks it hasn't performed very well with the rest of the risk assets so to me this is a negative thing. i'm short-term negative crude. if it traded below 86.36 yesterday's low it would be more of a confirmation but the real confirmation would come about 85.75. it is mostly that it hasn't rallied off china. >> it really hasn't certainly. if we get a resolution of the fiscal cliff could that open us up for a rally here? >> i think so. when you listen to business

leaders talking they are saying they feel unleashed if we get a resolution on the fiscal cliff meaning hiring people, building inventory, things like that. plus we have another round of qe coming and i haven't even mentioned the uncertainty with geo political problems so we haven't even talked about that in crude oil so far. i like crude oil. i think it's held up very well considering the uncertainty about the fiscal cliff and it is still above the key support level of 85.5 to 84.5. >> how closely do you need to watch what the dollar is going to do? >> well, that is funny because it's kind of been disconnected with the dollar a little bit but i think it is fairly close but i think if the dollar was going to plunge we are at a point where money would flock to gold and silver first because the growth story is not there as well. i'm concerned with it. but to put it on what anthony said too we always have headline risk in crude whether it be middle east or fiscal cliff. so you put on options to hedge yourself. >> absolutely. thanks so much for that. so now, guys, you know how the traders are betting on crude but how about you? do you see crude going higher or

lower? logon to futures now.cnbc.com. you can vote in our poll. and also for more trading ideas, don't forget to watch futures now, live every tuesday and thursday at 1:00 p.m. on futures now.cnbc.com. and of course you can catch me at 2:00 p.m. on street signs. we all know about the fiscal cliff. what about the fiscal cliff with frequent flyer miles? you'll be surprised. we have a big surprise for you coming up at 2:00 p.m., scotty. you have to tune in to find out what it is. that's a tease. >> i'm looking over my shoulder at sully who is disappointed he didn't get a little mention. >> catch me on street signs. >> prop the man up. >> at least 22 1/2. >> well, i thought it was only 20%. >> i'm talking body mass. >> yeah. in which case it is 15. >> guys, we will see you at 2:00. look forward to that. when halftime report returns the fiscal cliff and the markets. why a deal may move stocks in the direction you haven't prepared for but first the case for and against walmart.

the trade at two month lows. we go live to the mall in short hills, new jersey to find out where consumers are opening their wallets the widest. we'll get inside from the taubman centers executive. there is a live shot of the mall. good traffic there right now. we'll be right back. can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot?

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walmart is down big after the ceo said the fiscal cliff is affecting shoppers. can it reignite the run it saw earlier this year? we'll debate it. pete why do you like walmart? >> right now you have to consider a lot of things. they finally have addressed what they had not for a long time which was to compete with the dollar stores, with the neighborhood friendly stores that are about the quarter of the size. they're also a very, very friendly shareholder company. they retired a lot of stock. i think that makes them very interesting along with the dividend increases. i think the real trump card is voodoo this internet to compete with red box, netflix, all of those in the online internet world of buying, the whole industry of media. i think that really does play in their favor. i think that is an area they're exploding that was a great acquisition a couple years ago. >> what is the deal you're not

buying that argument? >> i think it is voodoo. the first i've heard that. >> voodoo shop-o-nomics. >> i know a little about it. you've sean weakness in a store that has the same customer. you talk about the quality, you saw mexican allegations earlier this year shall the bangladesh disaster last week. a lot of people are playing as a yield trade. in my belief that is going to be over next year. expensing at 15 times earnings. a big part is the tax, searching for yield. i think if you believe in a recovery you have to move the cyclical stocks out of the high dividend stocks. you see a high increases in taxes next year, dividend stocks typically -- very, very weak. relative strength is getting weak. just trading below the 52-week moving average, below the hundred. fundamentally we don't like it. stay away. >> the cash flows are incredible. they've been raising that dividend every opportunity they get along with retiring some of the stock. i think there are a lot of reasons and when you address the

dollar stores i think the fact that walmart is finally going after them is why the dollar stores are suffering. it is not dollar stores have stolen the customers. i think walmart is stealing them back. >> a good point. a good little company. i don't disagree. >> good little company? >> this segment is about walmart. >> you know, i'm from the uk. i still think england rules the world. everything is little in terms of england. seriously, it's had its run. it is a yield play, expensive. i think you have much better opportunities in the retail space which i do like but i think on the higher end. >> do you buy this stuff that mike duke the ceo says the fiscal cliff is hurting? i can already hear the parade of excuses coming down main street. >> right. a great excuse to have in place right now and that is the reason for the sell off. i think the sell off preempted everything. this is why this is an opportunity now. >> all right. we'll end the argument there and go to the jury. josh, who made the more compelling argument? >> simon made a really compelling argument but i think pete is right on the stock. the bottom line is this is a

stock people want to own. it's not terribly expensive. technically, on a longer-term time frame than the 15-day moving average this has broken out of a massive range it has been stuck in for 12 years. i still think it works and we're long. >> we'll close the case this week and debate something else obviously on monday. all right. with only 11 shopping days to go until christmas how are the nation's malls faring? and who is emerging as the winners this season? our guest is the chief operating officer and joins us live from the mall at short hills in new jersey, a place i have been many times. good to have you on the show. how are you? >> thank you very much. glad to hear you come here. >> i spend too much money there. what is the outlook? how do things look this year? >> you know, i think things started out very strong on black friday. they substantially weakened right after black friday. i think we pulled some business forward in general across the industry. but obviously things have started to pick up. i do agree with all the comments before about the fiscal cliff.

i do think it is weighing on the customer. particularly the luxury customer. but we have seen the luxury customer coming out. i would say in the last week to ten days far more than in the prior two weeks. i would say -- >> i'm sorry? >> i was going to say they're saying 2 to 3% for the year. i think that is probably right. i think it was more than that black friday, less than that after black friday and it won't probably catch up over the next 12 days. >> you do have a pretty good mix of stores, various categories obviously at the mall that you're sitting in or standing in right now. i can see many high end names but also mid tier. how is the mid tier holding up? >> you know, the mid tier has been i would say solid. i think a little less of a rollercoaster than the high end this season. there is discounting but i think the discounting is more targeted. they have better technology each year. they're able to focus their discounts specifically where they need them. they have -- many chains are

able to pick up merchandise out of the stores for the web fulfillment which gives greater flexibility in using the inventory they have in order to maintain their margins plus cotton prices are of course way down which is helping all of their margins. so i think you have to look both at the top line and the bottom line. my expectation is sales are going to be up sort of mid, single digit. maybe a little less. but margins will probably be better than people expect. because they're just not factoring in the huge decline in cotton prices. >> the flip side of that, though, are sales. i mean, discounts. i'd imagine if i go to that mall, you know, tomorrow or sunday, which i actually may do, i'm going to see a lot of sale signs around the place. right? >> yeah. but you have to be very careful. you might see 40 off on selected merchandise. the question is, how much merchandise is 40 off this year versus prior years? and part of what they're able to do, increasingly, is really focus the technology, to use the technology to focus in on

marking down only the merchandise they really need to. so i think while there are clearly discounts it is applying to far less merchandise than in years past where it was 40 off everything for instance. >> yeah. your area of the market has done well obviously over the last year i would think in part as people are looking for yield. i mean, reits have done quite well. can you give us an outlook for that sector relative to what's happening with the fiscal cliff, possible change in tax law, etcetera? >> you know, it is complicated. as you look at all the different issues obviously the fiscal cliff does worry us. it worries our customer. and no question there are going to be higher taxes regardless of what happens. that is going to impact the consumer going forward one way or another. in terms of yield, i think yield while important is less important. there was a time when we had like an 8% dividend. now we've got like a 2.5% dividend. while it is still a lot better than putting your money in the bank i think it is less impactful overall.

you see the same thing with utility stocks where the dividends have come down a lot. so i think that is less -- people look at the growth. they look at the stability of our cash flow. peak to trough in the great recession we declined less than 5% in noy. i think that history gives us a lot of credibility in the market as an industry about the stability of our cash flow. >> mr. taubman appreciate it very much. maybe i'll run into you out there. have a good weekend. >> we hope to see you and your wife particularly. >> i'm sure she hopes that is the case too. we'll see you soon. ahead on halftime why a cliff deal may actually give the stock market an excuse to sell off. and a look at two hot stocks which may be on the verge of cooling off. we're back in two minutes. americans are always ready to work hard for a better future.

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welcome back. over to brian sullivan he has an update on the school shooting in connecticut. what can you tell us? >> well, it just keeps getting worse, scott. hate to be the one to break the news but let's talk about what we know. there are still a lot of facts that are unknown at this point as the situation is still fluid. the fbi and numerous officials on the scene but at least 20 people many of them children have been shot. at least 20 people have been shot according to two officials talking to nbc news. the apparent shooter, right now they believe there is only one

although as you can imagine they are going building to building, guns drawn, to make sure. the apparent shooter an adult and dead. the fbi on scene. a lot of headlines crossing across a variety of sources. we're going with exactly what we know and what we're being told at nbc news and cnbc which is that at least 20 have been shot at the school in new town, connecticut. many of those it being a school are indeed kids. so as we get more information we'll certainly bring you that breaking news, guys. >> thanks so much. that story taking certainly a more apparent awful turn. more halftime back in a moment. recognize me.

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welcome back. in our friday fast forward our next guest says stocks will move on a fiscal cliff deal but not in the direction that you might think. mike santolli of yahoo finance joins us live in new york city. mike, bear with us. there's sort of no easy way to make a segue off the story that we're obviously covering in connecticut, but we'll do our best. why do you think that the market will take a turn that some people aren't expecting if there is a fiscal cliff deal? >> well, just raising that prospect mostly based on what a market has done in the last couple of weeks since the hysteria, the tick-by-tick fixation they've had. we've gotten this little 6% lift. i think that we've kind of wobbled sideways for a little

while. i feel like the market just in general is probably in search of a little bit of an excuse before too long to back off in some hard way so, therefore, as opposed to people thinking that the only thing standing in the way of a much higher market is some kind of a cliff agreement, you might be able to get more of a sell on the news response. i was looking back to the debt ceiling experience in the summer of 2011 which in many ways doesn't fit but in the market dynamics it does fit. 7% decline. the market gently recovered most of that. a few weeks before that hard deadline basically panic set in. you also had the european sovereign debt flare-up. i do think it's worth noting that when you have the market sort of presuming you're going to have a relatively easy path past this point, you have to wonder what's going to be the catalyst just in an overdue correction kind of way. >> you think sell on the news becomes some sort of a buying opportunity, is that what you would foresee? >> i think more likely than not. i think the economic momentum is

okay right here, whether it's china or domestically. i feel as if people are not kind of overly greedy and very involved in the long side to the point where you'd say, hey, wait. we repeated really need to have a major gut check. but i do think that going into next year once we get past the whole noise of exactly the details of any agreement, look, if we go over and it looks like people are walking away and we're going to go to january without a deal, then i don't think it's just a gentle dip that you want to buy because i do think that would cause more of a little bit of an anxiety response. most likely based on the scenarios that look like they're on the way, i do think it would be probably more of a buy. >> what about a specific stock that we should be looking at, mike? which one is on your radar? >> this is worth owning and you want it to pull back. i like johnson controls. big blue chip. goes back to the 19th century. big market share on car batteries. play on the global auto cycle. they've absorbed a lot of global weakness in europe. they have a building controls, commercial building controls

unit that's not really doing that great at the moment. i feel like the stock is inexpensive. 2.7% yield. they have an investor meeting. very up front companies. good management that lays out guidance. there's at least a chance that that gives people little comfort in the longer term growth story. >> mike, we'll talk to you again soon. >> my pleasure. >> mike, time trades are coming up next. [ male announcer ] this is amy. amy likes to invest in the market. she also likes to ride her bike. up next. s, time trades are coming up next. an, time trades coming up next. t, time trades a coming up next. o, time trades a coming up next. l, time trades ae coming up next. l, time trades are coming up next. i, time trad are coming up next. fitime trades are coming up next. ntime trades are coming up next. atime trades are coming up next. ltime trades are coming up next. ime trades are coming up next. me trades are coming up next. e tras are coming up next. trades are coming up next. or weird... or wonderfully the market's behaving... which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. monarch of marketing analysis. with the ability to improve roi through seo

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up side. >> simon. >> in video the table chip. j.j. >> in the financial sector it's like a boxer that gets beat up day after day after day, it never goes down. with that being said, goldman sachs is a financial stock. >> what do you make of this argument that santolli was making, pete. you can get a sell on the news event if you get a deal on the fiscal krif. it's counter intuitive. >> if that were to happen, i agree with josh. i don't know that i see that in front of us. if that were to happen, i think that present a great opportunity. i look at the financials. goldman sachs, i look at all the financials. jpmorgan, goldman sachs, i like them. >> i totally get what mike's saying. it's an interesting thing to consider. it's definitely possible of course. my inclination would be a 1,000 point dow rally. there's so much pent up fear and skepticism. with that out of the way in

addition to what the feds told us, which is low rates until we're dead, i can't imagine this market not exploding higher on a deal. >> simon, the dow has had a nice little run here, right? we had the string of six or so, seven days or so in a row here where the dow is up. we haven't seen that since the spring. >> yeah. >> do you think if we get i inklings of a cliff deal, what do you think is in store for the market? >> we've got 17 trading days left, what have you. the market's up 6, 7% on very light volume. i think they've been a little bit more cautious. i've been pulling money off the table on the bet much a fiscal cliff getting resolved. >> j.j. >> i was going to say even if we go off the cliff, so to speak, it imposes discipline on us. with that, i think the one thing it gives us hope for is once we know the rules, we can start hiring again. with everything said, you have bright ceos. right now they're guessing, what